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A Statistical Analysis of Trends in Mortality from Major Infectious Diseases of Global burden, 1990-2015

M. N. Megeri; H. H. Budihal; Manoj Kumar G..

Abstract
Background: Infectious diseases are the world’s foremost cause of death that presents one of the most significant health and safety challenges facing the global community. Studying about infectious diseases has become an important aspect because of its unexpected fluctuations in mortality rates and changing the demographic scenario of any nation.
Aim: This paper provides an outlook in the trends of mortality rates of major infectious diseases (ID’s) at the global level.
Data and Methodology: The data collected from Institute for Health Matrix and Evaluation (IHME) and has been tested for the normality and homogeneity of residuals by Shapiro-Wilk test and standard Normal Homogeneity test respectively. Joinpoint Regression analysis was carried out to estimates of Annual Percent Change (APC) and trends of ID’s
Results: The result shows a gradual decrement from 1990 to 2015 in the death rates from ID’s. But in case of HIV with TB, HIV/AIDS and Malaria, death rates increased till 2004 and later it was decreased gradually along with the crude mortality rates. The joinpoint regression method also identifies different inflation points to the different ID’s.
Discussion and Conclusion: The diseases like Lower respiratory infections shows highest death rate among other major ID’s mortality followed by diarrheal diseases and drop off in recent years and least rates are seen in Intestinal Infectious Diseases. The implementation of health policies by WHO and advancement of technology in health science reduces the mortality rates of Infectious diseases.

Key words: Joinpoint Regression;Infectious diseases;HIV;TB


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