Background: Change in disease status over a period of time is termed as fate. During a non-intervention period, the fate of cases reflects the natural dynamics of the disease. The fate may be favourable as free from disease and unfavourable as death / bacteriologically positive.
Objective: To identify the risk factors for unfavourable fate cases after two years of DOTS.
Methodology: The present cross section study was carried out on TB cases which were registered for DOTS in 2006. The cases were distributed into various strata by Stratified Random Sampling method and to get the representation of each type of TB cases, cases were chosen by Systematic Random Sampling Method from each stratum. Out of 357, total 304 cases were contacted.
Results: Out of total 304, 254 (83.55%) cases had favourable fate and 50 (16.45%) unfavourable. After two years of DOTS Chemotherapy, four cases found bacteriologically sputum positive and six previous sputum negative/ extra-pulmonary cases had relapsed with clinical and histological evidence of current active TB. The relapse rate was 0.99% (3/304). The set of variables which determines the prediction model for increased risk of unfavorable cases were age above 35 years, married, illiteracy, past history of TB and first actions at government institutes.
Conclusion: This study may add the knowledge on TB, time trend for mortality and natural dynamic of TB disease. The risk factors derived by logistic regression applied to identify lacunae/ obstacles due to which patients land up in unfavourable fate.
Tuberculosis, DOTS, Favourable fate, Unfavourable fate