Home|Journals Follow on Twitter| Subscribe to List

Directory for Medical Articles
 

Open Access

Original Research



Interim identifi cation of “at risk” students: A predictive model

Mark I K Norrish, Pananghat A Kumar, Thomas A Heming.

Abstract
Objective: Identifying and supporting students who are academically at risk are an essential part of medical
education. This study considers how well aspects of previous performance predict academic performance
in the current year and whether it is possible to use a combination of previous and current performance to
identify students who are academically “at risk” in the current year. Methods: Regression analysis was used
to investigate how previous academic performance influences current performance in medical students at
a mid-point in their studies (year 4 of 7). To identify students who are academically “at risk” in the current
year a risk prediction model was developed on the basis of a combination of current and past performance
variables. Results: Cumulative grade point average and previous failures were identified as significant macrolevel
predictors of performance, and in addition several subject-by-subject level predictors were identified as
independently significant. This risk prediction model accurately predicted “at risk” students, with a high degree of
sensitivity and specificity, as shown by the non-progression of 88% of the students who were identified as being
‘at risk’. Conclusions: By considering the academic content of courses, the development of transferable skills
and how recently a course was taken, it is possible to accurately predict academic performance. It is possible
to identify students who are academically “at risk” by developing a predictive model using a combination of
current and previous variables. Therefore, non-completion rates in medical schools could be reduced through
the timely introduction of specific and targeted remedial interventions for “at risk” students.

Key words: Academic performance, at risk, progression, medical education



Share this Article


Advertisement
Journal of Contemporary Medical Education

SUBMIT YOUR ARTICLE NOW


ScopeMed.com
ScopeMed Home
Follow ScopeMed on Twitter
BiblioCAM
Author Tools
eJPort Journal Hosting
About ScopeMed
License Information
Terms & Conditions
Privacy Policy
Contact Us

The articles in Scopemed are open access articles licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/) which permits unrestricted, non-commercial use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the work is properly cited.
ScopeMed is a Database Service for Scientific Publications. Copyright © ScopeMed® Information Services.
Scopemed Buttons